NFL Week 14 Thursday night Bettors Guide: Packers at Lions

8:15 p.m., Lions by 3 ½, 51 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The opening line has been bet down a point, owing to all the Lions’ injuries at all three defensive levels as well as recency bias from Thanksgiving when the Bears bumbled their way out of a potential upset in Motown and the Packers whomped the Dolphins. Since the first matchup, won by the Lions at rainy Lambeau after jumping out to a 24-3 lead, the Packers have been hitting their stride behind a healthier Jordan Love and the Lions just a tad less impressive. The hook is still in play, and a lot of betters seem to be biting on it. Still, one mini-blip against the Bears isn’t enough reason to jump off the Detroit train and stand in front of it. The Packers have injuries of their own, and while Josh Jacobs has been a human bowling ball, the Lions defense, unlike Miami’s, has been one of the best tackling units in the NFL. Green Bay’s run defense is less impressive against outside runs, something the Gibbs-Montgomery tandem (172 yards in the first meeting) can exploit. We decided a few weeks ago to stay on the Lions ATS for the rest of the season and after rewarding their backers seemingly every week, we don’t see Dan Campbell’s team failing to cover two straight weeks at home against a divisional rival. As for the total, we can see both teams relying on their running games to keep this one under.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Lions and the under.